If you ask 10 handicappers what their most important handicapping factor is they will not say speed. Yet, when they begin their handicapping process the very first thing that 9 of the 10 will do is look at the speed ratings in the race. They may look at speed in a myriad of different ways, ultimately, making it a cornerstone of their handicapping effort.

The majority of players use some kind of electronic download to handicap the races. That download will feed into some software product. The software will contain or compute speed ratings.

Most of the players who do not use a software product will use a set of reports downloaded from some source such as BRIS, TrackMaster or The Daily Racing Form. These reports will come with speed ratings. A few players will still be purchasing The Daily Racing Form paper edition and doing what I call “paper-and-pencil” handicapping. Most of these players will use The Beyer numbers.

My point is that very few handicappers will actually calculate their own speed ratings.

Good speed ratings begin with a good set of par times. I just happen to know where you can get the best par times available anywhere for the track-to-track adjustments that must be made. That would be the current version of my HorseStreet Par Times. (The 2012 version is in our store right now for those of you who are interested.)

I look at speed ratings from 13 different points of view:

• Last Race
• Best of Last 2
• Best of Last 3
• Best of Last 4
• Best 2 of Last 3
• Best 2 of Last 4
• Best 3 of Last 4
• Average of the Last 2
• Average of the Last 3
• Average of the Last 4
• Best Ever
• 2^nd Best Ever
• Best 2 Ever

Understand, that when I speak of “speed,” I mean speed ratings and not “early speed.” The question is, which speed rating(s) are best to use? If you ask the typical horseplayer which of the above approaches was the “best one to use,” the majority of players would choose one of the first two on the list: either Last Race or Best-of-Last-2.

Final time in the last race gets 62% of all winners in the top 3. Notice the $nets.

Final Time, Best of Last 2 and Best 2 of Last 3 win more races. This is how most players look at racing: “What wins the most races?” So, they jump on the bandwagon of most recent races, just like everybody else.

If you are looking for a contender selection process, however, what you really want is the approach that does the best job of eliminating the worst horses in the field.

Suppose, instead, if we ask the question, “Which way of looking at speed produces the worst result for horses in the rear half (RH) of the field? That way, we can toss them and leave in the rest.

What we find is that taking the “best two speed ratings ever” (of the last 10 races) points to horses that will produce the worst $net. We find that Best 2 of Last 4 does the best job of picking the lowest IV horses in the rear half.

In the future we’ll take a look at what happens if we look only at long shots, but for now, then next time you are looking to eliminate horses look at older pacelines rather than newer ones.

Each week I receive many comments from handicappers all over the country who are having difficulties finding the path to their success. Recently, I spent some time looking back on some of these e-mails. In reading them I found that many of their struggles were similar to what I have experienced in my  quest for horse racing success.

I’m going back several years here, but the memories are still fresh. I knew where I wanted to get to, but I didn’t know exactly what to do to get there. As a result I struggled and was frustrated, but what kept me going every day was my long-term vision of where I wanted to be.

My long-term vision inspired me to take action when I felt frustration, fear and confusion. If I could have shared this letter with the “me of years ago,” I know it would have given me the direction I needed. I hope it does the same for you.

The Letter

Dear Handicapper,

I am not exactly sure what your specific goal is as a horseplayer. It really doesn’t matter whether you want to play on a professional level or just beat the game more frequently than you do now. What does matter is that winning at the races has a significant level of importance in your life. I appreciate your enthusiasm and ambition.

I have a couple of questions to ask you and, based on the answers, some advice on what to do next.

First, how well is your current method working for you? Is it accomplishing your horse racing goals?

If you answered, “Yes,” to this question, then you are on your way to success (if you have not already succeeded).

If you answered, “No,” to this question, then I will ask a second question:

How long have you been playing your current approach?

My experience is that the great majority of horseplayers practice what I call the “system du jour” method. That is, they try a system, playing it until they are convinced it doesn’t work, which is easily measured by the reduction in their wagering account. Then they may move on to another system, and another one after that, and another, and another.

Through the course of a year they may play their way through six or seven different approaches. Once they have exhausted all the systems they know of, and are at a loss for what to do next, they cycle back to the top of the list, playing a system they played in the past. The end result, of course, is the same: another losing year. Worse still is the frustration that comes with this process.

Now, don’t get me wrong. It is okay to change your mind; it is okay to switch away from a losing methodology. The problem is that there are no out-of-the-box winning methodologies to be found! This includes all of my products and my software as well!

That’s right! Even my stuff behaves according to the same set of rules. So, why would you buy something that doesn’t work?

First, I didn’t say it didn’t work. I said that you do not simply take it out of the box, go to the window, and expect to make profit forever, never looking back. That is simply an unrealistic expectation.

The Horseplayer Next-Door

Imagine there is a successful horseplayer who lives next door to you. He makes his living at the races, lives very well, and seems to have all that he needs. You wish you could do what he does.

You decide to approach your neighbor to ask for help in your personal quest for profit at the races. You tell him what you want to do and ask for his help. He offers to spend a full Saturday afternoon with you explaining what he does. You schedule the following Saturday to spend with him, fully immersed in learning how to win.

Think about this for a moment. What is your true expectation here? Do you truly expect that the following Saturday you will suddenly become profitable forever? Do you truly expect that one four-hour session is all you need?

Even if your neighbor could transfer sufficient knowledge to you in just four hours, is it realistic to expect that he would be willing to simply hand over the results of his years of hard work and learning just like that?

Your neighbor’s intentions are good and you will benefit from what he teaches you. However, you probably have more to learn than can be taught in a four-hour session.

The way I see it, you should view this four-hour class as a starting point. Consider it a roadmap to where you want to go, where the direction, as well as the first part of the journey, has been plotted for you. Ultimately, you must complete the journey yourself.

The Roadmap: Part Two

So now you have completed your Saturday afternoon appointment. You have directions to get you started and the first few waypoints on the map have been marked.

If you are the typical player, you have your next system du jour. After a couple of weeks of play, you cannot help but notice that you are still losing. “But I’m doing it just like he told me to do!”

If this were a true story, it would have several potential endings:

1. The handicapper says, “This system does not work. My neighbor must be lying.”
2. The handicapper says, “This system does not work. My neighbor didn’t tell me everything.”
3. The handicapper says, “This system does not work. I have to look for another one that does.”
4. The handicapper says, “This system does not work, but I perhaps I can make it work.”

Which of the above responses would you choose?

I doubt there is a single person reading this message who would admit to either of the first two responses, although clearly there are people who think that way. (I have the e-mails to prove it.)

The majority of horseplayers I have met would fall into response number three. The system did not show profit, therefore it is of no use to this handicapper, and the search for the Holy Grail continues.

Becoming a Type 4 Handicapper

So, we finally get to the point of this message.

I have taking you down this path because… Well, think of it as four hours on a Saturday afternoon to address the question you have asked many times over: “How do I become a winning player?”

The best single answer I can give you can be summed up as a single phrase:

Continuity of Action

Winning at the races is the end result of many small, incremental improvements. Sometimes a single improvement may result in a huge difference to the bottom line. In such a case, it may appear that the ultimate success was the result of this single change when, in reality, it was all of the changes compounded upon one another that produced the success. It gives credence to the following quote:

“It took me 30 years to become an overnight success.”

Look back at the four responses again. The first three indicate a lack of willingness to do the necessary work to become profitable. At least the third one indicates a willingness to do something. Unfortunately, it is the wrong thing.

Since I am using so many metaphors in this message, I would liken the third response to prospecting for gold by walking through the desert, head bent downward, hoping to find a pile of gold. One could walk around like that for years and never discover a gold mine, although it is possible that you might stub your toe on a nugget now and then.  The only way to find gold in the desert is to dig for it.

Conclusion

Pick a method. Maybe the one you are working on now, or maybe one from the past that you thought had promise. If you have no idea, where to begin, the next part of this message may provide the answer.

Take this method and commit to making it work. Find out what is broken and fix it.

That means, work on why it is failing and figure out what you need to add to make it work better, understanding that “better” might not be “good enough.” It might take several rounds of improvement before “better” becomes “good enough.”